The Hindu, March 28, 2011
Six years on, a mixed record of implementation, but military sales hold the key.
Most observers of the Indo-U.S. relationship remember 2005 for the civil nuclear initiative that was launched during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Washington in July. But the ‘New Framework for the U.S.-India Defence Relationship,' which was signed at the end of June 2005, was just as path breaking — at least for the U.S. government, which saw expanding military cooperation as central to the growing ties between the two countries.
Leaked U.S. Embassy cables, accessed by The Hindu through WikiLeaks, provide an unparalleled insight into the military and strategic considerations that drove – and continue to drive – U.S. administrations towards seeking closer ties with India. There is the sheer size of the Indian market for weapons imports, estimated by U.S. diplomats to be worth more than $27 billion in the ‘near term' alone. There is also the promise of a closer working relationship with the Indian armed forces in the Asian region.
Towards ‘interoperability'
In 2005, the United States felt it was on the cusp of a big breakthrough. It eagerly looked forward to the sale of a major military platform like the multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) and an Indian willingness to sign up to “foundational agreements” that would allow U.S. forces to access Indian facilities and build “interoperability” with the Indian armed forces. But if the cables reflect Washington's sense of elation at the fact that “for the first time, India can afford (politically and financially) to purchase front line US equipment,” they also capture its anxiety, impatience, and frustration when the Indian side pushed back on various fronts or failed to respond enthusiastically to insistent American demands.
Mixed results
Whatever the promises held out by the 2005 defence agreement, the actual balance sheet today is a mixed one. The U.S. has made considerable headway on military sales; it hopes still to achieve that “breakthrough sale,” especially after striking an understanding in 2009 on end-use monitoring (EUM). But its pursuit of interoperability and access has not yielded the desired results.
The cables reveal that the Indian method is never to say ‘No' when asked by the Americans about the Logistics Support Agreement (LSA) or the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA). Indeed, when pressed by U.S. diplomats, senior officials and Ministers blithely assert that the internal review process has “nearly” been completed and that the Cabinet will “soon” consider the texts. But these agreements remain unsigned despite five years of assurances. A senior member of the Cabinet described for The Hindu, Defence Minister A.K. Antony's jocular response when a ministerial colleague asked how he dealt with the American pressure to sign. “We have not said no,” he recalled Mr. Antony saying. “But I tell them, there are soooooo many procedures. We have to follow alllllll the procedures!”
This resistance cannot be traced to any firmness shown by the Indian government as a whole or the bureaucracy as an institution. It cannot, in fact, be attributed to any single factor. But the primary reason for the mixed balance sheet has been democratic opposition in the polity and public life of the country, to which influential sections of the media have also contributed.
Backstory to Pranab's 2005 visit
At the start of 2005, the U.S. believed the time had come to make a big push. The Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) that the Bush administration had launched the previous year in tandem with the National Democratic Alliance government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee had already established a framework of mutual undertakings in which India and the U.S. would move the bilateral relationship forward. In the initial phases, India undertook to bring its export control and end use verification procedures for dual use items in sync with U.S. requirements, while the U.S. side would lift some export restrictions, provide a classified briefing on missile defence and allow India to buy the Patriot system.
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